Future growth trends in mobile industry - Greener pastures ahead !!

During last few months I have come accross several reports on future growth projections on mobile industry. Some of this data have already been posted on my blog. I thoought it was a good idea to compile some of these projections at a single place so that the readers can conviniently co-relate them. The various sources from where these projctions have been taken are also quoted below.

Mobile advertising worth $14 billion in 4yrs (2011)

Predictions and suppositions on the future evolution of mobile advertising have been going by for some time now. The latest comes from a Strategy Analytics report and says that advertisers hope on reaching more than USD14 Billion by 2011.Still, just recently, debates have emphasized the fact that mobile advertising is considered by many companies as being rather risky and less profitable than the TV alternative. This comes from the fact that the video content they use is still in a primary state and there is room for a great amount of improvement. One thing that might attract companies as to choose mobile phones for placing their advertisements is exactly the fact that this environment is yet little used. This means that it proves to be considerably easier for an announcement to stand out and be fully received by the handset users when there are no other adverts around to distract him from this specific one. The outlook for mobile advertising spend has significantly advanced in the past 12 months. The supply of advertising inventory is rapidly increasing as mobile publishers look to develop advertising as a revenue stream. Major mobile network operators like SprintNextel, Verizon Wireless and Vodafone have all accelerated plans to sell advertising within their mobile media channels and advertisers appear to be responding positively. The Strategy Analytics report also regards game downloads, mobile broadcasting and video on demand, all used as spaces for mobile advertising. Even more, several advertising companies have teamed up with mobile software and service providers in order to better develop means of reaching high profit rates.

Mobile apps worth $66 billion over 5 years

The transformation of variousenterprise applications from fixed to mobile access technology will generate more than $66 billion in carrier service revenue over the nextfive years, says a new market research report from Insight Research Corp.By the close of 2007, service revenues generated by mobile applicationstraversing wired and wireless networks in the US will reach just over $9billion; by 2012, the value of services revenue supporting thoseapplications is forecasted to grow to nearly $13 billion, according to thenew market study. Insight's newly released market analysis report, "The Mobile Workforceand Enterprise Applications 2007-2012," states that telecommunicationsindustry consolidation and job growth in the services sector are bothspeeding a transformation of various enterprise applications to a mobilityenvironment. Citing Bureau of Labor statistics, the study finds thatoccupations working outside of corporate offices are increasing at a muchfaster rate than average employment growth. At the same time, consolidationwithin the telecommunications industry has put all of the requisite pieceparts required to deliver integrated wireless applications within the handsof the remaining companies. "Analyze AT&T, Sprint, or Verizon and you will find that each companynow commands the local, metro, long-haul, and wireless assets required todeliver an end-to-end corporate solution," says Robert Rosenberg, Presidentof Insight. "Equally as important is the fact that these companies areshifting capital expenditures from infrastructure to service control,managed services, and applications. This shift in resource allocations willbenefit enterprises looking to mobilize their traditional applications, soin the months ahead we see a real rush to develop mobile applications,"Rosenberg concludes.

Mobile games worth 11.2 billion by 2010

Total global revenues from mobile games are forecast to increase from USD 2.6 billion (2005) to USD 11.2 billion by 2010, according to Mobile Games, a new strategic research report from Informa Telecoms and Media.
Downloads will account for around two-thirds of total global revenues through 2010, but online multiplayer traffic will start to generate significant income for mobile operators, as cellcos launch more multiplayer games and introduce community features that will encourage user uptake. By 2010, online multiplayer games will generate 20.5 percent of total global revenues.
"The Asia-Pacific and Europe will continue to dominate the global mobile gaming market in terms of revenues and users," says Pamela Clark-Dickson, co-author of the report, and editor of continuous research service Mobile Games Analyst, published by Informa Telecoms and Media. "However the U.S. is set to become the second largest individual market by revenues and users, behind Japan and China respectively, by 2010."
Meanwhile the mobile games industry still has work to do to encourage mass-market adoption of mobile games. This year, just 6.7 percent of all mobile subscribers globally will download and play a mobile game, rising to 15.2 percent by 2010.
"The cellcos' strategy of targeting hardcore gamers was the right thing to do when the market was in its early adopter phase," says Stuart Dredge, co-author of Mobile Games and reporter at Mobile Games Analyst. "But now what the market needs is mass-market take-up, which means that the mobile games industry has to provide games that will encourage more casual users to play."
Merger and acquisition activity is thinning out the mobile games market, especially in the games development and publishing sectors. The race is on to acquire the smaller mobile games companies whose survival to date has relied on the production and distribution of good quality games based on desirable licenses, but which haven't been able to scale their operations.
"Previously consolidation occurred mainly among mobile games companies but recent acquisitions and investments by vendors such as RealNetworks and Cisco Systems attest to a growing interest in this sector from the wider digital media and information technology industry," says Clark-Dickson.
Mobile games companies will also likely embark on brand-building and consumer marketing activities during 2005, as they launch their own direct-to-consumer offerings, and seek to build the profile of mobile gaming in the marketplace.
While the cellcos' decks will continue to be the primary source of games for mobile users, games companies have also started distributing their titles through third-party content portals and through bricks-and-mortar retailers.
"Multimedia memory cards will become an increasingly important games delivery mechanism at retail, particularly for 3D and feature-rich 2D titles," says Dredge. MMCs will contribute 9.1 percent of total global revenues for mobile games by 2010.

Mobile entertainment worth $76 billion by 2011

The mobile entertainment industry, if actualized, could reach a potential of $76 billion by the year 2011, a recent study conducted by technology market analysts Juniper Research claims. Made up of music, games, TV, and sports, the entertainment business via mobile phones has a set stage for an explosion of mobile entertainment in the coming years.

“The face of mobile entertainment is expected to change significantly over the next five years as next generation mobile services continue to be rolled out around the globe and take up steadily increases,” said Juniper Research Mobile Entertainment principal author Bruce Gibson in a company press release.

This mobile entertainment industry could reach the $76 billion mark, up from $17.3 billion in 2006. One of the main reasons for the potential boom is the current wave of third generation networks, which offer the bandwith to support mobile entertainment . Other factors include the rise of mobile video feeds and live mobile TV. Supplemented by a growing market in Asia, the mobile entertainment industry could grow along with it.

Juniper Research warns opening up a Pandora’s box for perturbed mobile users. The possibility for the monetization may be eclipsed by possible pitfalls such as gambling or pornography. These two factors alone could impinge on the successes of this untapped market.

“Whilst the potential to generate dramatically increased revenues is certainly there, many uncertainties affecting sections of the market still exist and could put a break on growth – the development of legislative environments for mobile gambling and adult content, and the success of broadcast mobile TV trails currently underway or planned, are just two examples,” said Gibson.

Mobile social networks worth $13.1 billion by 2011

Red Herring (04.16.07) reported that according to London-based Informa Telecon and Media mobile communities and user generated content (often bracketed together as social networking) will be worth $13.1 billion by 2011.

Mobile content to reach $43 billion by 2010

The global market for mobile phone premium content will exceed US$43 billion by 2010, according to a new study by iSuppli. This compares to the figure in 2004 which barely reached US$5.2 billion. Over the next four years, the market for such extra mobile services as music, gaming and video will expand at an annual rate of 42% argues the US-based research company.
According to Mark Kirstein, vice president of multimedia services and content for iSuppli, "After years of hyper growth, mobile phone markets in several major regions around the world are maturing, resulting in slower subscriber growth and declining average revenue per user for carriers. Meanwhile, new 3G networks offer increased bandwidth, but require compelling applications and content to drive revenue and provide a return on investment to operators. Against this backdrop, mobile-service carriers and content providers are establishing new business models to capture the growing opportunity."
The company believes that the main driver of premium mobile content services will be music, led by ring tones and ring tunes. iSuppli believes that this market alone was worth US$3.8 billion in 2004 and grew very quickly last year as the industry made a major transition from traditional polyphonic ring tones to ring tunes. Coming a close second in terms of growing popularity is mobile gaming, which the company believes grew by 80% in revenue terms last year. However, mobile video is seen as the best long term bet for expanding premium content services, even though the market for such services is still in its infancy.
The company argues that the success of mobile TV depends entirely on new phone deployments. According to iSuppli even with reasonably strong adoption of mobile-TV technology and subscribers, the installed base of TV-capable phones will only represent 12% of the total by 2010.

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