Spectrum Status by Circles & Operators

I thought this was an interesting data published in Business standard - http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_index1.php

Beyond MTN & Zain - Bharti, BSNL & MTNL have opportunity in Egypt

Egypt will offer two licenses to provide telecommunications services for upscale suburbs outside the capital, including fixed lines. The is move expected to bring in $1 billion worth of investments over the next five years. The licenses will be granted to a pair of consortia to operate so-called "triple-play" services that group internet, cable TV and phone services within such communities springing up around Cairo and elsewhere in the country.

The move marks the first potential crack in the state-owned Telecom Egypt's total monopoly over fixed line communications, though for now the services are only for within these communities.
The companies will not be required to submit an upfront payment, but the licenses would be based on a revenue sharing program in which the government would get 8 percent of the proceeds of operations within these compounds. Telecom Egypt would still operate in these communities, including fixed line services.

It is said that the bids are due on Jan. 12 and the decisions would be made in the second half of 2010. The communities affected are those which house between 50 to 5,000 units, while larger communities would be served by Telecom Egypt.

The move by the government comes as the country has been grappling with the fallout from the economic meltdown. While Egypt has fared better than many other nations, with officials projecting economic growth of over 5 percent for the fiscal year ending next June, it has still struggled with slumping foreign investment as the world's worst economic recession in decades has prompted investors to tighten their purse strings.

Over the last few years, Cairo has been expanding and its developers have invested billions of dollars in new housing communities in the desert catering to upper- and middle-income Egyptians.
The government's move also indicates a shift in the responsibility for providing infrastructure from the state to private developers.

Opportunity bells are ringing for Indian Telcos like Bharti, BSNL & MTNL who are desperate to invest abroad.

Download speed of 28 Mbps offered by Singapore's Mobileone - Wired-line broadband's fag end begins?

Singapore's MobileOne (M1) has announced a further upgrade of its HSPA+ network to support mobile broadband download speed of up to 28 Mbps in selected areas. The increased speed has been achieved with the installation of MIMO (Multiple-input-multiple-output), making M1 HSPA+ network the first in the Asia Pacific to adopt this technology. MIMO is expected to be rolled out to the entire network progressively. Huawei has provided the upgrade.

Meanwhile, M1 will be offering mobile broadband service with download speed of up to 21Mbps island-wide from this Saturday. The M1 HSPA+ network has been capable of delivering download speed of 21 Mbps since July this year, although the company says it held back its commercial launch pending the arrival of customer terminals.

In a year or so the same can be expected in other major telecom markets of world - India & China. Does that indicate that the fag end of wired-line broadband has just begun.

Justifying tele-density in India ? Are the numbers reported by Indian Telcos inflated?

In some of my older posts, I have shown my concern on the numbers reported for users of mobile service in India. For example with entry of DoCoMo on Indian scene, the numbers Tata reported to have added last month was more than 3 million. Bharti & Vodafone continue to claim the same number of addition that they were claiming in new month. Strangely it means that with entry of new operators the existing will not loose market share. Somewhere fundamentals of economics have been defied. In other words the teledensity in India can reach 100% in ayear or so, if 10 more new operators join, as they will each add 2 to 3 million connection without decrease in the number of additions by existing operators. WoW! It seems the tele density figures in India need to be justified some how.

Recently in one of the articles published in ET,findings of a survey by online market research company JuxtConsult were reported. It says - One out of every three (57 million) urban mobile users in India now own two or more mobile connections. Believe it or not. After all this is a survey. JustConsult claims that it's the first time an estimation on the size of this segment has been attempted, as none of the industry associations––Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) and Association of Unified Service Providers of India (AUSPI)––or sector regulator Telcom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) have any estimation of the number of multiple connections per user.

Understanding the size, composition and motivations of this huge segment of mobile users is critical. It is needed by mobile operators in designing their marketing plans. It is also needed by handset makers and department of telecom (DoT), which is in a fix as to estimating the true teledensity of India. JuxtConsult's estimation of mobile connections in the country (till July) at 343-million is lower than TRAI's estimates of 441.6-million (August). JuxtConsult attributes the difference between its estimate and TRAI numbers to many inactive connections. Says Sanjay Tiwari of JuxtConsult: "The discrepancy is also because about 15% of reported additions by mobile operators and their associations are inflated." There are credible reasons behind operators inflating subscriber numbers. Market cap, valuation and spectrum allocation based on number of subscribers are key reasons along with the pressure to cut tariffs. It also helps attract subscribers to one's own network. A new user is likely to join a large operator as network calls come cheap.

ET also reported that the government suspected that all operators were inflating their customer figures by about 15-20% and that the DoT is planning to monitor the user base of all telecom operators to ensure that operators do not inflate subscriber numbers to grab additional spectrum. Well all this will be sorted out shortly - I hope! For the time being Justconsult deserves appreciation for trying to help in profiling the multiple user customer, whose average age largely falls between 25-35 years. According to the survey, Delhi and the national capital region account for over one in ten of all 57-million MCMU’s at 12% of the total base followed by Mumbai (8%), Bangalore (7%) and Chennai (6%). Most are actual genuine connections.

The survey, also for the first time, makes a distinction between a user and a connection, hitherto taken as one in reporting India’s teledensity and average revenue per user. As reported by ET - According to Rajat Mukherjee, chief corporate affair officer at Idea Cellular, about 20% of all telcos’ customers carry more than one SIM. The carried / thrown in dustbin SIMs remains to be distinguished

JuxtConsult’s India Mobile 2009 estimates are based on a very large sample data of around 285,000 urban and rural Indians, covering all states and union territories––574 districts, 3,175 towns and over 2,800 villages. With at least 30 plus sample each from 323 districts and 419 towns, and 100 plus sample each from 184 districts and 155 towns, the study is one of the most representative, independent enumeration of mobile phone usage in India.

With over two mobile connections per user (2.4) amongst multiple connection mobile users (MCMU), this segment account for a majority (59%) of all 235-million odd urban mobile connections. JuxtConsult’s survey did not estimate MCMU numbers for rural India. TOO MUCH TOO SOON !!

With increased urbanisation and migration from distant parts of the country to the cities, long distance calling has been on the rise across the country. ET reports that Airtel will also soon be launching a family plan where in three members of a family can buy Airtel postpaid connection but pay rental for only one. This plan is justified by the survey which shows that joint families have the highest ownership of mobile phones, with about 65% of their members owning more than one connection.

The socio economic class (SEC) A & C mobile users show higher tendency to have multiple connections, says the survey. Migrant workers and youth form a large part of the target audience. This push is also having an impact on more Mobile phone sales and launch of newer models. Sunil Dutt, country head, Samsung Mobile says he is seeing a rise in sales of Samsung’s dual mode GSM/GSM and GSM/CDMA handsets. While Nokia and Sony Ericsson don’t have such phones in the market, Spice Mobiles, has 50% of its portfolio as dual SIM phones. Such phones contribute a good 80% of the company’s revenues, says Kunal Ahooja, CEO, Spice Mobiles. The survey says that about 41% MCMUs need another spare handset for ease of use. But switching between GSM and CDMA handsets is cited as a reason by 30% buyers.

3G bidding - Is this the third & Last round of telco competition in India?

The DoT (Department of Telecom) will release a detailed information memorandum (IM) this week on the upcoming 3G auctions. As reported by economic times, the IM (information memorandum) to be released is likely to contains details regarding the billing schedule, qualifications of bidders, terms and conditions, payment schedules and other technical and commercial specifications that are critical to enable bidders to plan their auction strategy.

The DoT clarified that global telecom operators who do not operate in India are welcome to participate, though they will have to acquire a Unified Access Service Licence (UASL) to be eligible to bid. This implies some uncertainty for potential foreign bidders. At present, a pan-India UASL costs Rs 1,658 crore and comes bundled with 4.4 MHz of 2G spectrum. However, recent proposals to unbundle the licence from spectrum and to change its cost are still pending and could remain unresolved at the time India conducts its 3G auctions. This change is owing to a severe 2G spectrum crunch being faced in India with over 300 applicants waiting in queue for 24 months or more to get new spectrum/licences. DoT officials believe that global operators will be willing to join this queue, but given the fact that there is a shortage, the uncertainties relating to the cost and 2G spectrum availability may prove to be a deterrent. Any proposal to change the terms and conditions of licence has to be referred to the Trai and this usually involves a detailed process, including several consultations and Open House sessions with all stakeholders.

Domestic operators Bharti, Vodafone, Reliance, Tatas and Idea are expected to be the main players in the 3G auction ring. Nordic telecom giant Telenor, which recently secured 67% equity in Unitech Wireless is reported not to opt for a pan-India 3G licence but bid for a select few 3G circles. Aircel, Loop, Swan and Datacom may also place bids in some strategic circles.

The reserve price for pan-India 3G spectrum is pegged at Rs 3,500 crore. It is believed that given the limited number of slots, the government may be able to receive a price in the range of Rs 6,000 crore plus for each of the slots giving an additional revenue of Rs 25,000 crore to the exchequer for the current fiscal. The auction of third generation spectrum or airwaves, is likely to start this November. The EGoM has recently approved placing four slots of 5 MHz each in the 2.1 GHz band for auctions in 3G. If the auction is held in December as scheduled, it is highly likely that India will see four new 3G operators before the end of 2010.

To me this seems to be last round of competition between telcos in India. What I foresee is that after aggressive bidding for 3G licences, some of the operators will make huge losses. Then the consolidation phase will follow. By 2012 some of the players will start handling the batten - not to new players but to the one running in adjacent lanes.

Mobile Number Portability (MNP) to kick in from 31st Dec in India

Mobile number portability (MNP) — a facility that allows customers to switch operators but retain their numbers — will kick in from December 31 across the metros and category A circles, such as Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, while the rest of the country will have access to the facility from March 31, 2010.

TRAI, the telecom regulator in India, also issued a slew of guidelines for MNP implementation. - As per the norms, once a user switches operator, he must stay for at least three months (90 days) with the new service provider before moving to another operator.
- Besides, a user holding a mobile connection is eligible to make a porting request only after three months of the date of activation of his number.
- The subscribers, who wish to port their numbers must submit their requests in writing to their service providers. The new operator must mandatorily carry out all checks, including identity verification, before completing the process, the regulator said, adding that the entire process must be completed within four days.
- Pre-paid users must give an undertaking of being aware that balances on both talktime and minutes will not be carried over to the new operator they are switching to. Post-paid customers must furnish proof that all outstanding dues to their current operator have been cleared, TRAI added.
- The operators must inform the customer about the exact date and time for the process. The regulator has also made it clear that while the operator is porting the number, the customer may have to face a ‘no service period’ that can be extended for up to a few hours during which they will not be able to receive and make calls. But in a bid to address these concerns, TRAI has said the new operator must provide the customer with a list of missed calls and messages sent during the ‘no service period’.

Syniverse Technologies and MNP Interconnection Teleco Solutions, the two companies chosen to implement it in India, had projected to regulator that less than 3% of the country’s expected 550 million-plus mobile users will go in for MNP by 2010. The regulator, when issuing MNP norms, however, did not specify the charges that customers will have to pay for switching their operator. Syniverse and MNP Interconnection had proposed to charge customers between Rs 75 and Rs 200 for porting an operator, but the regulator is yet to take a final call on the pricing issue.

Unique Identification Number (UID) - Does the idea of roping in Telecom service provider has merit?

The Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI)has been established to provide a unique number to every resident in the country to target social security services as well as to assure the internal security. Authenticating 1.16 billion people is not an easy task. At this scale, it's going to be a one of its kind project and given the "as is" stage in which India is currently in, Mr. Nilekani needs to do lot of head scratching.

Nilekani, has already said that UIDAI would be looking for the databases of PAN card, passport, driving license, ration card, voter I-card and so on. But the first three cover only a small part of the population and the ration card data is subsumed in voter card data. The telecom user database of 500 million users is an obvious source which can be digged to help the UIDAI to have some part of the personal information checked.


Hence, The Indian government’s ambitious and high-tech unique identity or UID project is all set to ride on India’s 500 million strong telecom network as one of the largest available databases of subscribers anywhere in the world. So as a logical conclusion, DoT, along with the various telecom service providers, can be major stakeholder in this process. There are 480 million telephone subscribers in the country at the moment. Taking margin of error into account, the telecom database is an authenticated database of people in terms of identity and address is concerned.

To discuss how the database of nearly 500 million telephone subscribers can be used for issuing the unique identification number, the enrollment process of UID and how the telecom companies could help in the task of "Standardisation of Know Your Resident' norms which is a major goal of the all-India project for issuing the unique ID, UID Authority of India chaiperson and former Infosys cochairman Nandan Nilekani met telecom operators and DoT officials on 24th Sept seeking their cooperation.

While media reports indicate that Nilekani have sought similar cooperation from banks, post offices, and energy and fertilizer sectors, none of these offer the kind of large subscriber numbers and ready-to-use verification details as the telecom sector. This means that the country’s telecom subscribers could be among the first to be enlisted into UID scheme.

It is learnt that the project is expected to take 12 to 18 months to issue its first UID card and will then accelerate to clock half a billion citizens by the end of 2012. The telecom subscriber base works out perfectly since estimates place mobile users at well past 700 million by this timeframe. So essentially, if the UIDAI could convert every known mobile subscriber into a unique identity, it would have achieved a feat unmatched globally.

A major hurdle in implementing the project arises from the daunting task of developing appropriate software to support such a large database. The UID solution will have to have a quick query response system so that one can search by biometrics, particularly to track criminals. Further, the task of physically collecting one billion biometrics, photographs and other details in a short period of time is a logistics nightmare. Outlets will have to be nominated where people can go to have their data uploaded on to the database. Here again, the 10 million-strong mobile sales and distribution machinery may hold the key. This is because India has 97% mobile subscribers in pre-paid category who return month-after-month to renew the charge on their SIM cards.


As reported in press, Mr. Nilekani has said that the project will provide a unique identification (UID) number not a card. And hence the authentication can be made by using mobile phones. Once the UID is issued, one can go for online authentication.

Now all these seems to be just initial thoughts, getting the loose ends tied up will take its own time. In my opinion, the operators themselves rely on address proof and photo id proof which are unreliable for as far as linking to unique ID is concern. Further many forms (CAF) are missing and operators are being penalized for this. In my opinion, given the fact that many people carry more than two mobiles and also that many of reported numbers may not be operative, it will difficult to get meaningful information from mobile customer data beyond 100 million customer. To take the idea far, Mr. Nilekani's team will require to do some out of box thinking.

Its penalty time for Indian Telcos - DoT slaps Rs 32 cr of penalty for failing to adhere to sunscriber verification norms

Government has slapped a penalty of Rs 32 crore on mobile operators for failing to adhere to the subscriber verification norms in 2008-09. The penalty has been on all the mobile operators, including BSNL and MTNL, for failing to meet the subscriber verification condition. With a penalty of Rs 1,000 for each unverified subscriber, the number of such users comes to about 3.2 lakh.

Earlier in April this year, DoT introduced a graded penalty system under which operators pay Rs 50,000 per subscriber if more than 20 per cent of their user base is without valid identity documents. However,the penalty continues to be Rs 1,000 per user if the mobile operator's unverified subscriber base is less than 5 per cent of its user base in each of the circles.

With the customer base swelling at ~ 15 million per month, I bet, if strictly implemented, this can bring in about Rs 2000 to Rs 3000 million of revenues per year.

In terms of mobile minutes, Bharti Airtel is world's fifth largest operator

Bharti Airtel has latched on to the position of the fifth largest wireless telco globally, ahead of carriers like Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile and Latin American major America Movil. Airtel could trump global operators in providing cheaper calls to its subscribers. The company is way ahead of its global competitors by providing lowest cost per minute of usage.

China Mobile claimed the numero uno position in a recent research report, with 726 billion mobile minutes, followed by Verizon with 226 billion mobile minutes, during the April-June 2009 quarter. AT&T came up third with 166 billion mobile minutes, while Vodafone was in fourth place with 156 billion mobile minutes during the same period. Comparing favourably with global telecom giants, Bharti carried 141 billion mobile minutes on its network, almost twice that of Vodafone Essar, which is not listed in India.

The lowest-cost producer of voice minutes globally ensures a superlative cost structure, which is a key hurdle for challengers and green-field telcos. Bharti Airtel compares favourably with global telecom giants and has carried a total of 140.7 billion voice minutes on its network in 1Q from a single country operation, compared to Vodafone’s total network minutes of 143.6 billion, generated from its operations spanning 30 countries.

Rollout penalty for Indian Telcos - Delayed but not denied

The government of India has proposed a penalty of Rs 135.60 crore on private telecom operators, including Tatas, Airtel and Reliance Communication, for delays in rolling out networks. Though, the department of telecom (DoT) has lowered the total quantum of penalty from Rs 477 crore decided earlier to Rs 135.60 crore after repeated representations by the operators, giving a major benefit to all big private telecom players. Almost all private players except Vodafone-Essar face penalties.

As reported in Economic times, the penalty comes to over Rs 41 crore on Tatas, Rs 31 crore on Airtel and Rs 19.65 crore on RCOM. Among others, Aircel faces a penalty of Rs 28.85 crore, HFCL has a liquidated damages of Rs 7 crore and the two PSUs — BSNL and MTNL, along with Vodafone-Essar face no penalty.

The cases for imposition of liquidated damages were processed since 2005 and show-cause notices for imposition of liquidated damages (amounting to Rs 477.15 crore) were issued in 96 cases to 10 operators. There were representations from industry pointing out delays in statutory clearances, grant of spectrum for access, among other factors, for delayed rollouts. Thus, it was decided to revisit the subject and DoT has arrived at revised lower penalty for these operators.

As suggested in one of my earlier posts its also time to adopt Swedish model for penalizing operators for not meeting roll out obligations and are in turn hoarding spectrum. (For reading the full post click here)