Growing appetite for mobile data and suggested approach for India

Growing appetite for mobile data globally

Juniper has published it’s latest report on Mobile data traffic forecasts. As per them, the total mobile data traffic will exceed 90,000 Petabytes by 2017. What is more interesting is that 60% of this data will be offloaded to Wi-Fi networks and only 40% of the data generated by mobile devices will be carried through the cellular network by 2017. The report also emphasizes the roll that the small cells are going to play going forward.

Mobile data growth – Indian scenario

India today is on the verge of data revolution and in the current decade, data will transform the Indian telecom industry the way voice did in the previous decade. Indications are that data contribution from 2G will continue to rise, and 3G and LTE adaption will augment this growth. while the telecom industry in the rest of the world obtains 35-50% revenues from non-voice services, India derives only ~15% of sales from non-voice/ data services. Projections by UBS for major telecom players in India indicate that the non-voice revenues are going to be ~30% of total revenues for these players by 2020. These projections may well be surpassed if India is able to achieve a good broadband penetration backed by the recent policy pronouncement on National Broadband Plan.  As against the current broadband subscriber base of 14.68 million, the National Broadband Plan envisages provision of 160 million broadband connections (22 million DSL, 78 million cable and 60 million wireless broadband) by the year 2014. It is likely that the share of wireless broadband may be much more than the expectations as, like other countries, in India also; the data revolutions will piggy back on wireless broadband. 3G and Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) are expected to aid the growth of economy by boosting broadband growth.

Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) M-Bit report indicates that mobile data usage in India has grown at 54% growth in 7 months and is likely to double every 12-14 months. This report can be accessed at http://www.nokiasiemensnetworks.com/sites/default/files/document/india_mobile_data_-_mbit_index.pdf . Evolution of data services in China provides some insight for the potential for the data segment growth for India. Data service revenue constitutes 30.6% of total service revenue in China as compared with 12.6% in India in FY11, giving an indication for strong data services growth trajectory in India in coming years. Credit Suisse estimates that over the next three years, data could more than double in size to a US$14 bn industry in India, contributing over half the incremental industry revenue and add 500 bp CAGR to an otherwise slowing voice industry. They estimate 3G’s contribution to mobile EBITDA to rise to 9-13% (from less than 5%) by FY3/14

Wi-Fi offload – a solution to handle growing data volumes and speeds

No doubt more and more carriers are adapting to Wi-Fi. Recently AT&T had inked a pact with Boingo - one of the leading Wi-Fi service provider having more than 600000 Wi-Fi Spots around the globe. Going forward the carrier-Wi-Fi adoption will be gather speed mainly because of two developments –

a)   NGH (Next Generation Hotspot) and Hotspot 2.0 specifications along with 5GHz enabled devices.

b)   Carrier-grade small cells along with Wi-Fi will enable high levels of capacity and along with the macro network will provide commercial and financial success to the operator.

Now what’s there for India in all this? Ironically, there are not many Wi-Fi hotspots in India currently. Given that almost one-sixth of the world's mobile subscribers are in India and that the country is already spectrum starved, in future offloading the mobile traffic on Wi-Fi is the only feasible and practical solution to cater to the growing hunger for data services.

ITU studies and other major research firms have already pointed out that the data requirements of future can never be met by increased availability of spectrum even if spectrum efficiency improve considerably. India cannot rely on vacation of frequencies by Defense ministry as the chances of this happening are remote. And even if this happens it will be a slow process. Thus demand and supply of spectrum in India will always have wider gaps than in other countries.

India specific approach – A Public Wi-Fi hotspot network

In such a scenario, it becomes important for the India to have a large number of Wi-Fi hotspots in almost all major cities and towns. There are two ways of doing this. The first way of approaching the problem is that the market is left to itself and the telecom operators or third parties like Boingo creates a Wi-Fi hotspot network. However the problem in this solutions can be  -

·         - The commercial criteria and not the country/public good at large will drive the hotspot creation

·         - All operators will target the same places for hotspot creation like Airports, bus and railway stations, big malls etc. They will end up creating duplicate infrastructure and in process may not get the return on investment. India missed the bus while the mobile towers were being erected and this resulted in sheer waste of resources by way of creating redundant infrastructure. All operators invested in mobile towers at same time and at same spots.

·         - Such approach slows down the rural penetration as all operators are busy spending their money in big cities. At least for Wi-Fi, we can eliminate this approach.

This leads us to the second and more practical approach of policy intervention to ensure that a common Wi-Fi network is created across major cities that can be shared on payment basis by all operators. This will help in savings on one hand and better ROIs on other. An added advantage can be faster rollout even in tier II and tier III cities. The Bharat Broadband Nigam Limited (BBNL) had been created by Government of India to roll out a common optical fiber network that can be shared across telecom service providers. On similar lines, BBNL can also be entrusted to create a common Wi-Fi network funded through USO. However, the entity will be able to make money once the Wi-Fi network is used by telecom operators. A Wi-Fi hotspot requires back-end connectivity, preferably on fiber so as to ensure that large numbers of users are supported by the hotspot at higher speeds. Suggested approach will ensure that BBNL will identify Point of Presence (POPs) for optical fiber as per the hotspot requirements. If implemented, such a solution can not only help in solving the spectrum crunch, but will also help Indian citizens to get higher broadband speeds at affordable prices – an objective that the NTP 2012 envisages to meet.

3G Intra Circle Roaming (ICR) issue

Last week couple of news on 3G Intra Circle Roaming(ICR) arrangements in India raised the interests of the stakeholders. A brief background will help in understanding the issue better. Department of Telecom (DoT) who is the licencor and issues all telecom licences in India had earlier asked 3 Telecom service providers viz. Airtel, Idea and Vodafone to stop ICR based 3G services in the service areas where 3G spectrum was not assigned to them. In reaction to this, these 3 operators filed petitions in TDSAT (the tribunal which hears cases related to telecom in India). Incidentally the two members of TDSAT gave a split judgement. Subsequently DoT asked these operators to stop the 3G services based on ICR arrangements and even slapped penalties. The operators went to High Court and got a stay. Last week the stay has been vacated. To understand the issue of 3G ICR, the best is to go through the split judgement of TDSAT. To help the readers of this blog, I have summarized the same below. However I advise the readers to go through the original judgement so as to obviate any errors that may arise because of my understanding of the judgement. In case you are short of time, here you go ----

    Split Judgment by TDSAT on ICR dated 03.07.2012 - Finding the plea acceptable and valid, TDSAT Chairman Justice  S B Sinha allowed the operators’ plea against the government's directive to stop intra circle 3G roaming saying that it was violative of natural justice. The Petitions were allowed, the impugned orders dated 23.12.2011 was set aside with liberty to the Respondent to pass appropriate orders upon giving due opportunity of hearing to the Petitioner. However, differing in the decision taken, TDSAT Member P K Rastogi dismissed plea saying that the petitioners who have not got 3G spectrum allotted by the licensor in certain circles, cannot provide 3G services to its customers in those circles by way of making intra circle arrangement with the service providers having 3G spectrum. 

 Salient points deliberated in judgement delivered by TDSAT Member P K Rastogi

a.   On the principal question as to whether the petitioners having UASL/CMTS license along with 2G spectrum in certain circles can provide 3G services to its customers in these circles although 3G spectrum has not been allotted to them and whether such services can be provided by making intra circle roaming arrangements with operators having 3G spectrum in these circles, Member TDSAT has taken a view that the reading of cl. 2.2 (a)(i) of UASL shows that services to be provided by the licensee cover collection, carriage, transmission and delivery of voice and/or non-voice messages over licensee’s network in the designated service area and includes provision of all types of access services. In addition to this, except those services listed in para 2.2 (b)(i), licensee cannot provide any service which require a separate licence. Further he deliberated on the issue –“whether provision of 3G services requires a separate license”. On the issue, he is of the opinion that it is clear from the terms and conditions of license that the provision of 3G services cannot be provided without amendment to the UAS licence under Indian Telegraph Act, 1885 and without getting a license from WPC wing of DOT under Indian Wireless Act, 1933 for the relevant spectrum required to provide 3G services.  Thus, in his view, the provisions of 3G services require a separate license.  If the UASL licensee does not have separate license to provide 3G servies, it violate clauses 2.2(a) (i) and 2.2(b) (i) of the terms and conditions of the license.  

b.   3G services have been defined in the notice inviting applications (NIA) issued in connection with auction of 3G and BWA spectrum as “In case of successful bidders, services offered under the scope of respective service licenses using 3G/BWA spectrum assigned through the auction process.” Therefore, 3G services are those services which use 3G spectrum and 3G spectrum can be got through the process of auction only. In this petition, the petitioners have not got the 3G spectrum allocated to them in the impugned circles.

c.    On the question as to whether it is possible to provide 3G service by the petitioners to its subscribers by way of intra circle roaming arrangement with other operators having 3G spectrum, Member TDSAT has taken a view that the definition of ‘service’ and that of ‘subscriber’ show that the petitioner should have the license and the required network to provide particular type of service to its subscribers.  The petitioners have established only 2G network and have not setup 3G network which requires separate equipment and separate allocation of frequency. In case of intra-circle roaming, the roaming seeker should also have its home network and the licence for the spectrum for which it is providing service to its subscribers. Its subscribers can roam on the facility of roaming provider temporarily only and not permanently. Such arrangement is not permissible under the terms and conditions of license. In fact, UASL licensee without having the relevant (3G) spectrum providing 3G services to its subscribers will be acting as Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) where the service provider does not have its network in that frequency still provides services to the subscriber.  At present, MVNO is not part of government telecom policy and is specifically prohibited. The arrangement made between the parties are such that it specifically bars 2G roaming, and allows only 3G roaming for the subscribers of the roaming seekers i.e. petitioners herein. The roaming seeker neither has network nor the spectrum for 3G services. As the roaming seeker is providing 3G services by using the spectrum and network of the roaming provider, the Petitioner work like MVNO which is not permissible at present.

d.   In its judgment, Member TDSAT also quoted the terms and conditions of the roaming agreement entered by M/s TATA and Aircel and opined that the agreement indicates that the roaming provider having 3G spectrum have limited the usage of its 3G spectrum to the roaming seeker to certain percentage. This shows that the 3G spectrum is being earmarked to certain percentage for roaming seeker. Such arrangement of earmarking the part of the 3G spectrum allotted by a successful bidder to a service provider without any authorization by the licensor is not permissible.

e.    3G and 2G spectrum are allotted with different carrier sizes. While 3G spectrum (in 2100 MHz Frequency band) has been allotted with carrier size of 5 MHz; TDMA (2G)spectrum is allotted with carrier size of 200 KHz each for in 900 MHz/1800 MHz frequency band and 1.25 MHz each for CDMA in 800 MHz frequency band.

f.     On the issue of promissory estoppel that was raised by petitioners on the grounds that the DoT in its response to specific query in pre bid conference has said that roaming facility between 2G and 3G service will be available and once that commitment has been made the responses given by the DOT are definitely binding on the licensor, Member TDSAT was of the view that the doctrine of promissory estoppel cannot be invoked by a third party.  The petitioners in these petitions are not successful bidders in the auction. No contract was signed between the petitioners and the respondent.  Any response given during the process of auction cannot be binding on the licensor vis-à-vis these petitioners. As no promise has been made to these petitioners, the doctrine of promissory estoppel is not applicable. Therefore, the petitioners will not get any benefit out of the response given by DOT during the auction proceedings. The petitioners will be governed by their own license agreement. The query and responses are not in the nature of circular instructions of the department. The responses are for the purpose of auction of the 3G spectrum only. These responses cannot create any new right to the parties having effect of changing the terms and conditions of their licenses.

g.    On the issue of Natural Justice raised by Petitioner that the impugned communication of DoT dated 23.12.2011 to stop 3G services violated the principle as neither show cause notice was issued before the said communication by the Respondent nor any opportunity of hearing was given to the Petitioners, Member TDSAT has taken a view that various TERM cells of DoT had issued letters to the petitioners. Thus, they were well aware of the objections raised by the respondent at different points of time. The unsuccessful bidders did not get either the amendment to their licence or the allocation of 3G spectrum from the respondent.  It is not understood as to how the petitioner got any right to start 3G services.  The licensor did not confer any right to such effect. The show cause notice would have been necessary, if the petitioner were conferred any right to provide the 3G services to its customer under the licenses granted to it and the impugned letter of the respondent dated 23.12.2012 would have curtailed such rights.

China 3G subscriber base touches 50 million - Growing at more than 4 million per month!!

Three years after the networks first launched their commercial services, the number of 3G subscribers in China has passed the 50 million mark. At the end of May 2010, the country had 20 million 3G subscribers, and 38.64 million by the end of October 2010. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) expects the numbers to surge to 150 million by the end of this year. According to statistics from China Mobile, it had a total of 22.6 million 3G users in January, while China Unicon had 15.47 million and China Telecom attracted 13.64 million. These telecom carriers now have a large number of subsidized 3G phones available to attract users. 

Verizon all set to drop unlimited data plan offer on iPhone

More and more operators are becoming allergic to Unlimited data plans on wireless. Verizon Wireless, USA based operator,  who has only just started selling the Apple iPhone,  is already planning changes to the tariff plans it offers to its customers. Specifically, it intends to cancel the headline grabbing "unlimited" mobile data tariff as soon as this summer and switch to a tiered pricing model. The mobile network operator currently offers an unlimited data option for US$30 per month, although it reserves the right to throttle the download speeds for heavy users in areas where network congestion is high. That compares to the offer from rival iPhone seller, AT&T - who charge US$25 for 2Gb of data traffic per month.

Has the 3G adoption in India taken a back seat?

Is the 3G customer acquisition in India encouraging enough? Has the performance of Indian PSU Telecom companies in acquiring 3G customers been Good? 

Judge your self. This is how China's 3G customer acquisition has shaped up since 2009. As of the end of October 2010, China had reached 38.64 mln 3G mobile subscribers which is almost 3 times from last year. The number of 3G users of each of China’s top three telecommunication operators, China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom, exceeded 10 million by the end of October, the MIIT data showed. Out of total 39 miln user, 10 mln were China Telecom CDMA2000 EV-DO subscribers, 16.98 mln were China Mobile TD-SCDMA subscribers, and 11.66 mln were China Unicom WCDMA subscribers. Compare this to almost 10 million acquisition in India in one year. Not Bad? TD-SCDMA users accounted for 43.9% of total 3G subscribers, with the total number of new 3G users in 2010 to date reaching 25.38 mln.

Earlier this month, the ministry said that China aimed to have 150 million 3G mobile users by 2011, while investment in 3G development would hit RMB 400 billion (US$59 billion).

China’s telecommunication industry reported RMB 744.8 billion (US$109.53 billion) in revenues during the first ten months of 2010, up 6.6 percent year on year. Business revenue of mobile telecommunications made up 69.84 percent of the total, while fixed-line revenues accounted for 30.16 percent, dropping 3.2 percentage points year on year, the MIIT added.

Nokia Siemens makes world's first LTE call on commercial software

­Nokia Siemens Networks claims that it recently made the world's first LTE ( Long Term Evolution ) call using commercial base station and fully standard compliant software. The Nokia Siemens Networks' call was made via base stations with fully complaint software to the 3GPP Rel.8 (March 2009 baseline) LTE standard, bringing LTE trials closer to the behavior of future commercial deployments. The LTE data call was conducted in Nokia Siemens Networks' R&D Centre in Ulm, Germany, with its Flexi Multiradio Base Station.

The first deployments for LTE services are foreseen for the end of 2009 with volume rollouts of commercial networks in early 2010. Nokia Siemens Networks has already shipped LTE compatible Flexi Base Station hardware to over 80 operators

Mobile broadband expected to reach 418m Worldwide by 2017

­Newly released forecasts from Coda Research Consultancy's report show that portable laptop and netbook users accessing the internet via mobile broadband will produce US$48bn in operator revenues in 2017, will number 418m worldwide, and will generate and consume an immense 1.8 exabytes of traffic per month - a forty fold increase over 2009.

The most significant growth will occur in the Asia-Pacific region, where users will amount to 162m by 2017. Europe will account for 94m users, and North America for 58m users. Impacts of Long Term Evolution (LTE) will be dramatic, with half of all mobile broadband via netbook and laptop users employing LTE worldwide in 2017. LTE users will hit 38m in 2013 after a ramp up in LTE production in 2012, and will rise to 209m by 2017, a 1100% increase over 2012. Three quarters of users in Europe and nearly two thirds of users in North America will employ LTE in 2017. This contrasts with just over half of users in Asia Pacific, and 12% in Central and South America. LTE take up will be greatly skewed toward European and North American markets in the short to medium term, where ARPU will be highest. However, report envisage significant take up in China, and see countries like India bypass 3G altogether, and move straight to LTE.

More generally, mobile broadband user growth will not correspond with operator revenue growth, particularly in less wealthy regions of Asia-Pacific, thus significantly impacting mobile broadband ARPU. For example, operator revenues from Asia Pacific will grow at only 50% of the rate of users, which contrasts with 63% for Europe. The silver lining however, is that LTE ARPU will be 17% higher than for mobile broadband in general.

LTE operator revenues will be greatest in Europe, where they will rise by a CAGR of 47% from 2012 to 2017, and will form 83% of all mobile broadband revenues in that region. LTE revenues from North America will grow significantly more, at a CAGR of 59% between 2012 and 2017, and LTE will form 72% of its mobile broadband revenues. In contrast, LTE revenues will form only 13% of all mobile broadband revenues in Middle East and Africa.

LTE usage via portables will lead to more traffic per user than for mobile broadband in general. This will further increase pressure upon network capacity, and will hit 1.1 exabytes per month in 2017. Asia Pacific alone will take up 45% of this, whilst Europe will take up a third, and North America 17%.

Video will dominate mobile broadband traffic to and from portables, and will account for over half (53%) of traffic by 2017. The bad news for rights' holders is that one fifth of all traffic will be P2P. Nearly half of video traffic (47%) and nearly two thirds of P2P traffic will be consumed in Asia Pacific. This reflects the dominant position this region will play in mobile broadband usage and how mobile broadband will continue to be the sole vehicle for many people to gain broadband connectivity in developing countries such as India and China.

In summing up the report's forecasts, Steve Smith said, "Clearly, tremendous opportunities for both operators and device and component vendors exist, but the risks are significant. With enormous growth in traffic and considerable decline in ARPU, operators will need to be ruthlessly efficient. Asia Pacific is going to be the hotbed for growth, but it is a complex picture of emerging markets, developed markets and even markets that will leapfrog 3G altogether. LTE is going to be an important cushion for operators, but our research shows they will need to take into account the very different factors impacting 3G and 3G+ growth across regions and decide carefully how, when and where to market LTE."

Silver lining for fixed access opearators - Mobile broadband in UK fail to live upto expectation

­According to the latest data from the UK broadband comparison website Broadband Genie, only around one in ten (11 per cent) mobile broadband users are satisfied with the speed of their mobile broadband. While around a quarter were undecided, two thirds claimed their 3G broadband wasn't fast enough. According to Genie - Mobile Broadband Fails Miserably to Live Up to Consumer Expectations. The public perception of mobile broadband is often of a service that is comparable in speed and stability to fixed-line broadband, which simply isn't the case - and won't be for the foreseeable future. Exaggerated advertising and unrealistic 'up to' speed claims have given the public a rose-tinted idea of mobile broadband that the service cannot, in most cases, hope to live up to.

China 3 G tender - 5 firms to divide the pie

­Huawe­i, Motorola and Ericsson are reported to have been the biggest winners in the latest WCDMA infrastructure tender from China Unicom. The firm believed to have issued a tender to cover 55 cities in 30 provinces - the first stage in a rollout to cover 282 cities with a total CAPEX of around US$11 billion during 2009. Huawei is understood to have won 30.6% of the tender - and will carry out the work in cooperation with Motorola, which outsourced manufacturing parts to Huawei. Ericsson and its partners (New Postcom and FiberHome) secured a 25.6 per cent share.

In a move which surprised industry watchers, ZTE managed to take 21.5% of the tender - despite being weaker in the WCDMA market than its rivals. Nokia Siemens Networks took 11.1% of the tender, followed by Alcatel-Lucent which picked up 10.2 percent.

China Unicom is pushing to launch its 3G network by the middle of May this year - in an effort to catch up with China Mobile which has been building its own trial 3G network for over a y

More than 5 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by 2013 !

According to Informa Telecoms & Media, by 2013 the number of subscriptions worldwide will have risen to more than 5.3 billion and annual revenues from the global mobile market will top USD 1.03 trillion. From end-2007 to end-2013, the global mobile market will see huge growth, increasing in size by over half (56%), according to the latest edition of Informa Telecoms & Media’s Global Mobile Forecasts to 2013.

It took over 20 years to reach 3 billion subscriptions, but another 1.9 billion net additions are forecast in just six years, with the global total nudging past the 5-billion milestone in 2011. With this extraordinary growth, total annual revenues derived from mobile operators will grow by over a third (33.9%), jumping from USD 769 billion in 2007 to USD 1.03 trillion six years later.

Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts more than three quarters (78%) of global net additions between 2007 and 2013 to come from markets in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America, which will be the powerhouses of organic growth over the next five years. Astonishingly, nearly half (47%) of the 1.9 billion global net adds will come from just five markets – India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia. By contrast, the mature markets of North America and Western Europe will in total contribute just 8% of global net adds, reflecting the high level of saturation in these markets.

Globally, subscription penetration will approach the 75% mark in 2013, while some countries will push past the 150% barrier – Romania (152%), Russia (153%), Italy (168%), Ukraine (173%) and Greece (183%). Growth in subscriptions (the number of SIMs) will outstrip growth in subscribers (the number of unique users), pointing to greater multi-SIM ownership. The global ratio of subscriptions to subscribers will increase from 1.29 in 2007 to 1.32 in 2013. In Western Europe, the ratio will reach 1.55 in 2013, and even higher (1.75) in Eastern Europe.

As the global subscription base expands, total annual revenues will increase to over USD 1 trillion in 2012. Voice revenues will continue to make up the lion’s share of total revenues, but will see slowing growth, and even a decline from 2010 onwards. With regulators worldwide looking to promote competition, forcing operators to push down voice tariffs, Informa Telecoms & Media expects voice revenues to peak as soon as 2009 in Western Europe, and even by end-2008 in North America. In more developing markets such as the Middle East and Asia Pacific, voice revenues will not peak until 2011, and 2012 in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Operators globally will be challenged to generate sustainable revenues as average revenue per user (ARPU) continues to drop. To keep annual revenues on the up, operators will need to promote usage of data services. Annual data revenues, unlike voice revenues, will go from strength to strength, and will more than double from USD 148 billion in 2007 to USD 347 billion in 2013. As a result, the proportion of total revenues generated by data services will increase from less than a fifth (19.2%) in 2007 to over a third (33.7%) at the end of the forecast period.

With voice revenue streams diminishing, industry players will encourage data spend among subscribers by innovating in non-voice services and differentiating their data service offerings from those of their competitors. While 2G will remain the dominant technology generation by subscription numbers until 2013, its market share will fall from over two thirds (66.9%) in 2007 to less than one third (32.7%) in 2013, as 3G+ technologies continue to gain ground. 3.5G technologies accounted for just 1.2% of total subscriptions in 2007, but will represent nearly a quarter (22.9%) of the global subscription base by 2013 and exceed the number of 3G subscriptions.

China ready to go 3G finally !

China's government has finally issued the 3G network licenses after years of waiting. The announcement is excepted to trigger hot competition for among the network equipment companies. Chinese carriers are expected to spend 280 billion yuan on base stations, switching gear, transmission networks and other infrastructure.

The government will issue licenses for three different 3G standards: WCDMA, CDMA200 and a homegrown Chinese standard, TD-SCDMA. They all fulfill the ITU requirements for 3G standards. By developing its own standard, Chinese telecommunications companies will be able to reduce high royalty and patent payments for the use of foreign technologies. The announcement did not say which companies would receive licenses. But earlier it has been reported that China Mobile Ltd., the dominant carrier, would be assigned the TD-SCDMA standard. The WCDMA will go to China Unicom Ltd. and the TD-SCDMA to China Telecom Ltd.

Beijing repeatedly postponed issuing licenses while it tried to develop its own standard to compete with the global systems. At the same time the operators have been setting up large test networks for at least three years.

The issuance of licenses means some of the world’s biggest telecommunications companies could profit from huge spending on network and mobile phone upgrades, including phone towers and switches. China now has more than 600 million mobile subscribers, and there is fierce competition among international companies to capture market share.

By some estimates, China could have 150 million 3G cellphone subscribers by 2010.

WIMAX or LTE - Future tensed

WiMAX and Long-Term Evolution (LTE) are set to push the takeup of 4G services worldwide, with the total number of 4G subscribers w expected to exceed 90 million in 2013. As per says ABI Research, at the end of 4Q07, there were nearly 3.4 billion mobile subscribers worldwide, with 2.7 billion on GSM/EDGE/GPRS networks. Worldwide WCDMA subscriber numbers hit 180 million in 4Q07. ABI Research expects migration to HSPA+ to begin in early 2010, and migration to LTE will start by the middle of the same year. ABI Research forecast the total number of WCDMA subscribers (including HSPA) to approach 720 million in 2013. Some operators may not be ready to move on to LTE, as the peak data rates of 100 Mbps downlink and 50 Mbps uplink are achievable only with a 20- megahertz spectrum band. That is a luxury that most operators may not have, and many may be content with the capabilities of HSPA+ or settle for suboptimal LTE data rates with whatever they have at the time.

While the long-term roadmap for CDMA2000, especially in relation to UMB, looks more uncertain, CDMA operators are taking advantage of current upgrade possibilities. As such, many carriers have upgraded portions of their networks to EV-DO Rev A during 2007 while new CDMA entrants start with Rev A. ABI Research expects the total number of CDMA2000 subscribers (including 1x and various versions of EV-DO) to approach 800 million by the end of 2013


What will drive WiMAX growth?

Sprint's so-far-challenged mobile WiMAX buildout and rumors of a potential investment by Intel in that network are signs suggesting DSL/cable replacement and not mobility will continue to propel WiMAX forward in the short term.
Last fall, Intel took a minority stake in Nexcom Bulgaria, a competitive telecom operator that's in the process of rolling out that country's first 802.16-based nationwide wireless broadband network using WiMAX Forum-certified hardware. A vendor paying substantial sums for deployment of its own technology at this stage of product development is a concern. The lack of substantial mobile WiMAX network deployments without the Intel investment is troubling. Fixed WiMAX markets will remain a key to vendors. Currently WiMAX revenues are experiencing brisk growth due to employment of the technology as a cable/DSL replacement, adding fixed WiMAX subscribers will nearly double annually during these next years and will account for more than 60 percent of WiMAX subscribers by year end 2013 as well as a multibillion-dollar equipment market.

Major carriers are poised next year to deploy HSPA+ which is an update to existing WCDMA platforms and which will also outperform WiMAX Wave 2 networks. In a few more years operators will also be able to deploy UMB and LTE which both offer substantial improvements over 802.16e.

WiMAX vendors are by no means out of the mobile race. The upcoming 802.16m specification will offer the WiMAX community another great shot at mobile wireless in the 2010-2012 timeframe when most operators will be looking ahead.

Is WIMAX wading through troubled waters?

Motorola is positioning itself to offer an out to any carrier that opts for a network based on IEEE 802.16e (WiMAX) as its 4G offering and later decides it made the wrong choice and should have waited for the rival Long Term Evolution (LTE).

It's also been disclosed that Alltel is on the verge of ditching CDMA, eschewing WiMAX and joining the LTE crowd, and it's apparently working hand-in-hand with Motorola's LTE effort, leaving Sprint even further isolated in its choice of WiMAX.

In a little-noticed statement, Motorola said it's readying a wireless broadband platform that supports both WiMAX and LTE evolved Node-B (LTE/eNodeB) - the first such piece of hardware hinted at by anyone in the industry. The move will let carriers that take the WiMAX plunge to move to LTE (LTE advocates would say "upgrade to LTE") at some point in the future at a massively reduced capex.

Motorola didn't mention the name of any carriers it's targeting. However, in the United States, the only cellular carrier committed to what it calls WiMAX is Sprint, with its troubled Xohm program. Motorola is a key Sprint Xohm supplier with its IEEE 802.16e-based hardware (none of which has yet been certified as meeting WiMAX Forum specifications).

Motorola's WiMAX-to-LTE release was both buried in the pile of announcements Motorola has planned for next week's huge CTIA Wireless 2008 show in Las Vegas and vastly overshadowed by the company's announcement of its decision to split itself asunder, creating two separate public owned entities, in a desperate attempt to salvage its cellular handset business. The WiMAX/LTE hardware comes from the half of Motorola that's been making money hand over fist and growing at a healthy clip, and thus appears destined to survive no matter what the fate of the money-losing handset unit.

In related news, Motorola says it's demonstrated the first successful packet-switched network handoff between CDMA EV-DO Rev-A and LTE. The demo encompassed both VoIP calls and streaming video. Motorola, which is going to hold live demonstrations of the handoff next week, says laptops and mobile devices are equipped with dual radio transceivers that support both CDMA/EV-DO Rev-A and LTE and are active during the packet handoffs. As a device loses LTE connectivity, it automatically switches to EV-DO to help ensure consistent streaming without dropping IP packets. The process is then reversed, and devices switch back to LTE when LTE connectivity is restored.

Motorola's target market is obvious: every CDMA carrier in the world, starting with Verizon, which already has disclosed plans to migrate from CDMA to LTE Motorola is taking part in LTE trials set for later this year by Verizon and Vodafone, which owns 40 percent of Verizon Wireless. It now also appears Alltel is close to making the same decision.

At this point, Motorola's CDMA-to-LTE (and back again) technology is just at the demonstration stage, and it didn't give any timetable for having product ready for market, hardly a surprise because initial LTE deployments aren't expected until sometime late next year.

In other Motorola LTE action, the company joined the LTE/System Architecture Evolution (SAE) Trial Initiative (LSTI). Motorola's success in getting a foot in the door at Verizon/Vodafone was said to be a major factor in that decision. The LSTI is a global, collaborative technology trial initiative focused on accelerating the availability of commercial and interoperable next generation LTE mobile broadband systems. It was formally launched in May 2007 by Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Orange, Nokia, Nokia Siemens Networks, Nortel, T-Mobile and Vodafone. Since its inception, LSTI has expanded to include China Mobile, Huawei, LG Electronics, NTT DoCoMo, NXP, Samsung, Signalion, Telecom Italia, Qualcomm, ZTE, Rohde and Schwarz, and now Motorola.


WIMAX struggling to get foothold!!

Buzz Broadband, which a year ago became one of the first carriers in the world to offer service using WiMAX Forum-certified hardware, says WiMAX has "failed miserably." Consequently, the Australian carrier has pulled the plug on its network.
Buzz CEO Garth Freeman shocked the audience at a WiMAX conference during a presentation in which he blasted the technology as being incapable of delivering the service promised and "mired in opportunistic hype." Despite those promises, he reportedly said, non-line-of-sight (NLOS) performance was "non-existent" beyond just two kilometers from the base station, indoor performance decayed at just 400 meters and latency rates reached as high as 1,000 milliseconds - making WiMAX unusable for VoIP. Because Buzz's business plan depends heavily on VoIP sales, that's a critical issue.

Freeman, saying his company has ditched its WiMAX gear and is replacing it with other wireless technologies -- TD-CDMA and wireless DOCSIS -- added that most WiMAX deployments were still in trials, that the technology is mainly being looked at by start-up carriers and that it's supported by what he termed "second-tier vendors."
Needless to say, the remarks have gotten Airspan, which supplied Buzz with its gear, more than slightly upset. Airspan too has something to say - Among the charges is that Buzz opted for Airspan's "Micro" base station, which has a known shorter range, rather than shelling out for the more expensive "Macro" base stations. Also being brought into question is the adequacy of Buzz's own backhaul network, both in terms of quality of service (QoS) and capacity to carry such traffic as VoIP. That would put the blame for poor VoIP on the backhaul system, rather than on WiMAX.

Other WiMAX supporters also are chiming in with a range of theories, starting with one everyone knows: that "fixed WiMAX" using 3.5 GHz spectrum (which is what Buzz was using) doesn't have good NLOS performance. Rather, the argument goes, 2.5 GHz "mobile WiMAX" solves that problem. Mobile WiMAX is the trade name for the technology most people expect Sprint will use for its Xohm wireless broadband project.

In another development that gave a blow to WIMAX reputation, bankrupt Canadian WiMAX pioneer SR Telecom is being sold at a blue light special bargain price of just $6 million, in a deal that will leave current shareholders in the publicly traded company with zero value for their equity - not that its worth much now at less than a penny a share.

SR Telecom is one of only 13 companies in the world that actually has certified WiMAX products - despite the marketing claims of dozens of other companies. But that hasn't helped the Canadian wireless broadband pioneer, which bet its future on WiMAX and now has lost.

But presently NSN has an EDGE

Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) has taken the wraps off a planned upgrade it says will double the data download bandwidth of EDGE technology handsets this year, leading to quadruple speed in the near-distant future. The size of wireless broadband bandwidth is a sore point, with users looking for ever-bigger pipes to handle emerging applications. Nokia Siemens' move keeps the EDGE technology viable for what could be years into the future, perhaps in some places forestalling 3G and filling in until the GSM market evolves into the massively faster Long Term Evolution (LTE).

A Nokia Siemens announcement now, even though it won't be ready to deliver the EDGE upgrade until the third quarter, also is thought to be a pre-emptive move to blunt Ericsson's recently disclosed plans to introduce similar capabilities by 2009. Ericsson would dearly love to steal away as much of market-leading Nokia Siemens' customer base as it can; NSN claims a GSM/EDGE installed base of 260 operator networks in 117 countries, with a total of more than 1.5 billion subscribers.

NSN says its speed upgrade is a "Dual Carrier EDGE" solution that offers double data speeds of as much as 592 Kb/s to existing EDGE-capable GSM networks. The upgrade is to software and firmware, with no hardware trade-outs needed. It's believed most current EDGE-capable handsets, including notably the iPhone, can be upgraded to the new speed, although it's not clear whether older model phones will be capable.

The jump to 592 Kb/s will be followed by what NSN called "the next substantial step, the so-called EGPRS 2," which will offer downlink speeds of as much as 1.2 Mb/s and will double uplink speed to up to 473 Kb/s, thus quadrupling the capabilities of those currently offered by EDGE networks.

By 2015, NSN expect to live in a broadband IP world with five billion people 'always on' and, therefore, NSN is committed to protecting customer investments and continue to implement leading EDGE technology. Dual-carrier software upgrade is an easy and extremely cost-efficient step to bring broadband user experience to GSM/EDGE networks.

China finally going 3G

China finally has given permission to start commercial trials of 3G cellular technology but, at this point, only of the country's home-grown Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access (TD-SCDMA). China has been promising some sort of 3G service in time for the international event of summer olympics, and the country's (and the world's) largest carrier, China Mobile, has now built TD-SCDMA networks in eight cities, including the five Olympic venues. Interestingly, the Chinese have not yet formally issued frequency spectrum allocations for 3G, but that's apparently going to be little more than a formality. Under its commercial trial license, China Mobile reveals, it's built a network with a capacity of some eight million users.

The launch of 3G in China has been an international political hot potato for years now, with other countries charging that the Chinese have been dragging their feet on 3G in order to give TD-SCDMA time to be developed. That's allegedly to prevent the use of other 3G standards - WCDMA and CDMA2000 - even though, technically, they have been made legal in China by a reportedly reluctant government caving in to international pressure. Still, reports are that there's major pressure on China Mobile, China Unicom and other carriers to "choose" TD-SCDMA, a situation that would thus favor Chinese manufacturers in what has emerged as the world's biggest single cellphone market. Carriers reportedly served 565 million mobile phone users by the end of last month, estimated at about a 43-percent penetration rate of the total available market.

New "Tilt" in the enterprise phone segment

BlackBerry , iPhone and now Tilt. AT&T is launching new enterprise segment phone. This has not been one of my favorite topics, but the enthusiasm raised by iphone has forced me to look into the features of new "Tilt". We might soon have them in India (Provided DoT acts fast on new applications for licences)

The new "Tilt" phone from AT&T, that may be available in mear future may become the next enterprise phone that may also fit the bill (unlike ipone).
AT&T says the Tilt is its first Windows Mobile 6 smart device, featuring a slide-out QWERTY keypad, a 3-megapixel camera, 3G data speeds from AT&T's UMTS/HSDPA-based BroadbandConnect network and complete global connectivity.
Windows Mobile 6 Tilt users get "the familiar look and feel of their desktop computers at home or in the office," the carrier says, enabling them to view e-mail in their original rich HTML format with live links to Web and Microsoft Office SharePoint sites. All Windows Mobile 6 devices include Microsoft's Direct Push Technology for e-mail delivery and automatic synchronization of Outlook calendars, tasks and contacts through Microsoft Exchange Server. Especially important to enterprises, Windows Mobile 6 offers important device security and management features, including capability to remotely wipe all data from a device should it be lost or stolen, thus helping to ensure that confidential information remains that way.
In addition to Microsoft Direct Push, the AT&T claims its Tilt will be "the first Windows Mobile device in North America to include BlackBerry Connect v4.0 software, which provides BlackBerry e-mail service, security and device management for IT administrators and the benefit for users of wireless synchronization of e-mail, calendar, contacts, task list and memo pad information." BlackBerry Connect v4.0 supports push e-mail for Microsoft Exchange, IBM Lotus Domino and Novell GroupWise through the BlackBerry Enterprise Server and personal e-mail through the BlackBerry Internet Service.
Customers also can use the Tilt to access personal e-mail through AT&T's Xpress Mail service. By completing five steps, AT&T customers can set up their Xpress Mail accounts and begin getting personal e-mail from most major POP3/IMAP personal e-mail services pushed to their AT&T Tilt at preset intervals. They also can sync their calendars, access contact lists and view attachments.
Designed by HTC, which really has been putting itself out there this year at wireless industry shows, the AT&T Tilt also features a 2.8-inch color screen that slides back to reveal a full QWERTY keyboard, and then it "tilts" up to position the screen for reading or creating e-mail, browsing online, using applications or just playing videos and games. The Tilt supports Bluetooth 2.0, allowing as many as six Bluetooth devices to be connected simultaneously to the device; Bluetooth Stereo also is supported.

In addition, the AT&T Tilt features the latest version of TeleNav GPS Navigator that provides GPS-enabled turn-by-turn voice and on-screen driving or walking directions, colorful 3-D moving maps and traffic delay alerts with one-click rerouting. The new GPS version also includes address sharing that allows users to share their current locations or the location of their favorite businesses with other mobile users. Business users have access to TeleNav Track, a mobile workforce-management solution that includes GPS-enabled tracking, time sheets, wireless forms, navigation, job dispatching and bar-code scanning.

Regarding the mobile enterprise need for speed, with 3G broadband speed connectivity across the globe and tri-band UMTS/HSDPA capabilities, the Tilt can operate in Japan and South Korea along with the more than 135 countries in which AT&T offers UMTS, EDGE or GPRS international data roaming. For voice, AT&T says road warriors can make or receive phone calls in more than 190 countries
In the States, the Tilt can connect to AT&T's BroadbandConnect network in more than 170 major metropolitan areas, and coverage outside of 3G service areas is available via AT&T's EDGE network where available. Wi-Fi connections are supported by the 802.11b and g frequencies, and enterprise users can use the Tilt to link to corporate wireless LANs or home Wi-Fi networks.
The new phone is pretty affordable at $299.99 after rebate; customers are held to a two-year contract. Unlimited monthly data plans for corporate e-mail are $44.99 with a voice contract. Data plans for personal e-mail, begin at $29.99 a month for 20 MB; that price reflects a $5/month discount for voice and requires that an eligible wireless voice plan be activated and maintained on the same device (limited to one discounted price per eligible voice plan, the carrier says). AT&T also offers an international data plan for the Tilt -- 20 MB in nearly 30 countries -- for an additional $24.99 a month. TeleNav GPS Navigator is available for additional monthly charges of $5.99 for 10 trips and $9.99 for unlimited trips. TeleNav Track service plans range from $12.99 to $21.99 for each device.
In a related product announcement across the border, Rogers Wireless in Canada says it is increasing its presence Windows Mobile market with the introduction of the Palm Treo 750 smartphone and the MOTO Q 9h. The carrier also announced a free online Windows Mobile 6 upgrade for the HTC S621. In support, Rogers launched an ad campaign earlier this week raise enterprise awareness about how Windows Mobile-based applications help mobile professionals stay productive while away from the office.
"The Canadian converged mobile device market has experienced tremendous growth over the past few years registering 56 percent year-over-year growth in 2006. This has been fuelled largely by Canadian organizations' need to improve employee effectiveness by helping them access company information," says Eddie Chan, research analyst/Mobile/Personal Computing & Technology at IDC Canada. "The availability of high-speed connectivity, combined with the familiarity of the Windows-based platform in a mobile environment, such as Windows Mobile 6, can help organizations and their employees realize the benefits of a mobile solution."

(The features have been sourced ffrom telecom news break story)

Snapshot picture of CDMA deployment in India

These extracts from report of CDMA Development Group (CDG) gives a good snapshot picture of CDMA deployment in India. I thought the extracts were worth sharing.

"The CDMA arena in India is booming, with that country's CDMA2000 subscriber base now topping 50 million fixed and mobile users. The India's subscriber growth reached this milestone in only five years, half the time it took GSM to reach the same number in the subcontinent. The CDG attributes this rapid growth in the region to the economic delivery of differentiated value-added services, network expansion into the rural areas of India and the growing availability of very-low-end (VLE) devices.

With 2 million net subscriber additions in July, CDMA2000 subscriber base in India reached 51.1 million. Reliance Communications and Tata Teleservices, which the group says are among the Top 20 fastest-growing operators in the world, are investing in the CDMA2000 business to further accelerate this growth rate. CDMA2000 devices have experienced 50 percent year-over-year growth since 2003, with more OEMs participating in CDMA than in GSM.
In addition, the rapid expansion of CDMA2000 networks into rural areas of India to deliver voice and broadband Internet access has been a primary factor in reaching the 50- million-subscriber milestone. India reportedly leads the industry in the introduction of affordable fixed and mobile broadband access to underserved markets. In fact, the CDC says Reliance has launched one of the largest CDMA2000 network expansions on the planet -- with plans to reach more than 20,000 towns and 300,000 villages. In addition, CDMA2000 operators are poised to begin a seamless upgrade of their existing networks EV-DO Rev A.
With trials underway and operators rapidly expanding into the rural areas of the country, EV-DO Rev. A is expected to become an effective platform for enabling affordable broadband Internet access and value-added services in India's rural and urban markets. BSNL has already announced tariff plans for 1X and EV-DO broadband data services, supported by PC cards and USB thumb-drive modems. Tata introduced what it says is India's first 1X USB thumb-drive modem to support its Plug2Surf wireless Internet services, while Reliance recently acquired Yipes Holdings to address the enterprise market. And recent research predicts more than 35 million people will be using mobile broadband services in India by 2010."

CDMA2000 subscriber growth is also being driven by what the CDG says is India's global leadership in the selection and availability of VLE handsets; there reportedly are 45 VLE CDMA2000 devices from 14 suppliers available in country, and that number is expected to increase dramatically with the further availability of single-chipset devices. Another 10 single-chipset VLE handsets are expected to be launched within the next month, and the Indian CDMA industry has plans to support the local production of CDMA2000 devices.

USO bid for setting rural telecom towers

The Department of Telecom has received bids from 22 stand-alone infrastructure providers and all telecom operators for the setting up 8,000 telecom towers in rural India at an estimated cost of over Rs 3,000 crore. The government will provide the capital to set up these towers from the Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF) through a bidding process. All Telecom companies pay 5% of their adjusted gross revenues towards the USOF, which is used for funding telecom infrastructure in rural India. Last year, the government had allocated Rs 1,500 crore towards the USOF in the budget. As per the Economic Survey released on Tuesday, off the Rs 10,787 crore collected towards USO fund till March 2006, only Rs 4,232 crore has been disbursed so far.

China Mobile now has 306.10 million customer base

China Mobile, the Hong Kong-listed unit of China's largest mobile carrier by subscribers, has reported that it added 4.86 million customers in January, up from 4.83 million new subscribers in December.

The monthly addition was the largest China Mobile has reported to date.
The carrier said 4.54 million of its new customers in January were prepaid subscribers and 324,000 were contract customers.
The January additions raised China Mobile's total number of subscribers to 306.10 million, from 301.23 million at the end of December.

China Mobile's smaller rival, China Unicom, reportedly added 1.38 million subscribers in January, taking its total number of mobile customers to 143.74 million.

Fixed-mobile convergence - The new kid on the street

One of the latest phenomemn in telecom sector is fixed-mobile convergence.
ABI Research has found that, by 2011, some 250 million users will be making and receiving phone calls over converged fixed-mobile networks and access points, and the firm expects capital expenditure in fixed-mobile convergence infrastructure to exceed $450 million by 2011. That equates to around 10 percent of households and 8 percent of enterprises using some form of fixed-mobile convergence access point on the premises. This will include UMA and SIP-based solutions, both supporting voice call continuity.

There are several competing technologies for fixed-mobile convergence including use of UMA to aggregate traffic from femtocells and Wi-Fi access points in the home, and picocells in the office. In the longer term, IMS-based solutions will be deployed using SIP to offer rich voice sessions over converged devices.

325 Million subscribers use CDMA2000?

According to the CDMA Development Group, there were 100 million new CDMA2000 subscriber adds in 2006. Today, there are more than 325 million CDMA2000 subscribers, including 55 million CDMA2000 1xEV-DO broadband subscribers, representing a 125-percent increase in EV-DO subscribers from the previous year. Including cdmaOne, there are now more than 370 million CDMA subscribers worldwide, with most of the growth coming from the Asia Pacific region, followed by North America, Latin America and the Caribbean, Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

The group also reports more than 100 operators have deployed CDMA2000 in the past three years, including 47 CDMA2000 1xEV-DO networks. As many as 40 of these operators had been GSM carriers.

VoIP - Giants battling for patents

Vonage is facing Verizon in the U.S. District Court in - with Verizon claiming patent rights to key technology used by Vonage and possibly many others in the industry. Verizon is charging Vonage with violation of seven of its patents. The patents cover a broad swath of VoIP technology, including the completion of calls between VoIP users and the public network, authentication of VoIP callers, validating VoIP callers' accounts, monitoring VoIP usage, fraud protection, enhanced features, and the use of Wi-Fi.

At the same time reports have started spreading through the industry that Vonage is launching an annual pre-paid VoIP plan in a move some theorize is designed to generate some fast cash, and that the VoIP house is also about to become a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO).

Verizon filed its suit in June. In July 2006, Vonage said it had acquired three VoIP-related patents from Digital Packet Licensing that address compression techniques related to the public network, a move seen as an attempt to find technology work-arounds to the Verizon patents if they are upheld.
In the extreme, should Verizon win, then Vonage could theoretically be forced to shut down its VoIP service. Such an outcome, though, could typically take years of litigation, and few industry observers expect that to happen. The most likely outcome is thought to be a license payment from Vonage if it loses, or is losing, the case. Estimates are also that, if it knocks off Vonage, Verizon will then go out after as many other VoIP industry players as it can get its hands on.

Vonage is expected to become a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO).